At TTI, we move away from a limited view of traditional risk matrices that model risk as a factor of likelihood and consequence. Instead, we employ an outcome driven framework that is tied to strengthening our client’s mission objectives, where risk is considered as the effect of uncertainty on outcomes. We developed this approach based on our experience working with the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (better known as DEVGRU).
Initially, we expanded on the WWII-era threat assessment and governance tool “CARVER” to create an adaptive framework that aligns efforts across the joint force to defeat WMD proliferation pathways. Now known as the Pathway Defeat approach, it proved groundbreaking for its ability to encompass complex processes (e.g., nuclear fuel cycle) and incorporate increasingly diverse stakeholders.
However, Pathway Defeat failed to resonate outside of the special forces community. The framework became less adaptive as it transitioned from a philosophy to doctrine and could not keep up with increasing calls for whole-of-government solutions to complex problems.
TTI recognized that design thinking – and its non-linear, iterative process that can be used to frame problems, challenge assumptions, and create innovative solutions – was an undervalued approach to get after critical problems facing our government, our allies and partners, industry, research and development institutions, and more.
DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORKS
We have spent the past ten years designing decision making frameworks that maximize opportunities in a causal chain long before arriving at the need for consequence management because we address the drivers of risk and opportunity, both direct and indirect. As links in the causal chain transition from risk owner to risk owner, grey areas are often created because no stakeholder maintains perfect visibility between all the links. There may even exist links that no-one claims responsibility for.
We expand our client’s understanding of the risk continuum to gain visibility into the full chain of causal links, to include those for which they have direct and indirect responsibility. This facilitates your ability to extend greater influence over your risk environment and decrease the effect of uncertainty on outcomes.
The sum of these parts – opportunities and risk – are a decision-making framework that can be adapted to a wide variety of situations for the lab. It generates a methodology that can be applied all the way down to the level of go-no go on a specific project and all the way up to strategic partnerships with a variety of stakeholders. Ultimately, you will be improving your outcomes across the board.